2026 is shaping up as another tough year for layoffs and hiring freezes, but it is more a continuation and restructuring phase than a completely new “mass bloodbath” like early 2023.
What is actually happening in 2025–2026
- Tech layoffs re-accelerated through 2025, with over 100,000 tech workers cut and more than 200 tech companies reducing headcount globally.[economictimes]
- Many of these 2025 cuts came from large players (Amazon, Intel, TCS, Google, Meta) shifting priorities, especially towards AI and away from older or lower‑margin lines.[tomshardware]
- Early 2026 has already seen fresh rounds from firms like Meta (Reality Labs), Citigroup, and BlackRock, suggesting the 2025 pattern is carrying into this year.[business-standard]
Why leaders expect more cuts in 2026
- Surveys of executives show a clear bias towards staying lean: roughly two‑thirds of CEOs say they plan to either cut or hold headcount flat in 2026 rather than grow it.[saastr]
- One 2025 survey of 1,000 US business leaders found half had already pulled back on hiring, nearly 40% had done layoffs in 2025, and a majority expected further layoffs to be likely in 2026.[hrdive]
- Another survey of hiring managers reported that more than half expect layoffs in 2026 and see AI as a top driver of those cuts, especially for white‑collar roles.[informationweek]
AI, “invisible unemployment,” and who is most exposed
- A growing chunk of the pain is “invisible”: roles quietly eliminated via attrition, aggressive performance management, relocation/RTO pressure, and not backfilling departures, so the headline layoff numbers understate the chill.[saastr]
- Economists and industry observers describe 2026 as a “Great Freeze”: fewer new openings, more restructuring, and companies using AI plus process changes to do the same work with fewer people.[linkedin]
- High‑salary staff without strong AI or automation skills, recently hired employees, and some entry‑level roles are viewed by executives as the highest‑risk groups for future cuts.[hrdive]
How this likely feels in tech and AI infra
- For people in tech, 2026 is likely to feel like a grinding reset: fewer net new roles, more churn between companies, and continued pressure on anything tied purely to speculative AI or overbuilt infra.[info.siteselectiongroup]
- At the same time, companies are heavily investing in a smaller core of people who can build, operate, and productize AI and automation, including infra and observability talent, rather than cutting across the board.[finalroundai]
Practical implications for you
- Treat 2026 as a year to be defensive:
- Make sure your current role is visibly tied to cost savings, reliability, or revenue, not just “innovation theatre”.[perplexity]
- Double down on AI‑adjacent skills (MLOps, GPU/AI infra, automation with AI copilots) so you’re in the “kept and retrained” cohort rather than the expendable one.[tomshardware]
- If you’re in AI/data‑center/infra, the risk is more about over‑concentration in a fragile employer or product line than the whole category disappearing; diversified or sovereign‑backed infra tends to ride out the cycle better.[perplexity]