RIF | BLU // SAS

It is no secret that I am leaving Oracle to join Nscale at the end of this month. My main aim was to avoid the Oracle RIF/layoffs and while putting the worse case scenario in place, I managed to get a role at Nscale.

Both Oracle and Nscale are hedging their bets on AI and with the current worry that the AI bubble is going to burst, with the boss of Google saying: ‘no company is going to be immune’ [BBC], I asked AI these questions…

How Oracle would suffer in an AI crash?

Oracle would experience significant financial and operational setbacks if an AI crash occurs, mainly because its recent strategy has focused heavily on AI cloud infrastructure and hyperscaler partnerships. Here’s how Oracle and Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) would suffer:

Revenue Slowdown and Underutilized Data Centers

Oracle expects that AI-driven cloud infrastructure could make up the majority of its revenue by 2030, with multi-billion dollar GPU investments and flagship deals supporting OpenAI, Meta, and other hyperscale model trainers.webpronews+1
In an AI crash, client demand for large-scale training and inference workloads would sharply decline. That means Oracle’s new data centers and GPU fleets (including hundreds of thousands of Nvidia GPUs) could become underutilized, forcing write-downs and lowering ROI.fortune

Margin Compression and Volatility

Oracle’s current margins on AI cloud offerings are modest (around 14% in recent quarters), and plans for improvement depend on scale and full utilization of infrastructure.bloomberg+1
Reduced client activity would keep margins low or negative, intensifying investor scrutiny and driving downward pressure on stock price—recent volatility already shows concern over fulfilling ambitious AI cloud predictions.cnbc+1
Oracle would also struggle to justify continued massive investments to shareholders if growth fails to materialize.

Exposure to Contract and Customer Risk

Oracle is especially exposed to a few large anchor clients (e.g. OpenAI, Microsoft), who may defer or downsize contracts if the economics of large-model training weaken.webpronews+1
Cancellations or renegotiations on these hyperscale deals would lead to revenue instability and possible reputational harm in the cloud sector.

Delayed Application Growth and Broader Impact

While Oracle’s core application business (ERP, NetSuite, traditional cloud services) offers some revenue buffer, these divisions would also be affected by a broader tech and enterprise spending slowdown typical in an AI-induced market downturn.constellationr+1
Expansion plans and R&D investment would likely be scaled back, slowing Oracle’s ability to compete with more insulated rivals.

Summary Table: Oracle’s Pain Points in an AI Crash

Effect Area	Oracle Cloud & Business Impact
Infrastructure ROI	Underutilized data centers, GPU fleets
Margins & Profit	Margin compression, stock volatility
Contract Risk	Deferred/canceled hyperscale projects
App/Enterprise Spend	Revenue dampening, slower growth

In summary, Oracle would suffer via underperforming cloud assets, margin pressure, dependency on a handful of high-risk AI clients, and contraction of enterprise demand. While traditional non-AI applications offer some shelter, the scale of Oracle’s recent AI cloud bets makes it highly exposed to a major market correction.reuters+6

How Nscale would be affected by an AI crash?

Nscale would be severely affected by an AI crash due to its intense reliance on hyperscaler contracts, rapid capital deployment, and debt-financed AI infrastructure builds. Its business model is specifically geared toward serving large-scale AI model training and compute workloads, making it one of the highest-risk startups in a downturn scenario.

Revenue Freeze and Stranded AI Data Centers

If AI demand collapses, hyperscalers like Microsoft and OpenAI—Nscale’s anchor clients—would scale back their contracts, delay GPU purchases, or walk away from expansion phases, freezing Nscale’s main cashflow pipeline.computing
Data centers built for intensive model training could be left mostly idle, forcing Nscale to absorb heavy operational losses while continuing to service debt and lease obligations.

Investor and Debt Pressure

Nscale’s recent $1.1 billion Series B and $433 million SAFE financing involve a mix of industrial and venture capital (Aker, Nvidia, Dell, Blue Owl), and depend on optimistic growth projections and future contract fulfillment.cnbc+3
In a crash, these investors would likely mark down their stakes significantly, making further fundraising difficult. If cash flow dries up, Nscale could face covenant breaches, mass layoffs, and possibly insolvency.

Asset Write-Downs and Market Value Declines

Large inventories of Nvidia GPUs and purpose-built data centers for AI workloads could lose much of their resale value if a flood of surplus infrastructure hits the market simultaneously.computing
Hardware and campuses not suited for general-purpose workloads would be especially vulnerable—mirroring the fate of unused “dark fiber” and crypto-mining assets after previous speculative bubbles burst.

Strategic Pivot and Survival Pathways

With deep exposure to hyperscaler deals, Nscale’s best shot at survival would be pivoting toward government-backed sovereign compute projects, or repositioning under-utilized capacity for scientific, academic, or inference-driven workloads.computing
However, the overall scale-back in AI investment would make even these pivots challenging and may require restructuring, asset sales, or merger activity.

Summary Table: Nscale’s Crash Exposure

Pain Point	Crash Impact
AI contract reliance	Revenue freeze, phased-out deals, layoffs
Infrastructure assets	Write-downs, idle data centers, GPU oversupply
Investor relations	Markdowns, covenant risk, fundraising difficulty
Pivot opportunities	Limited to sovereign or non-AI workloads

In summary, Nscale would be among the hardest-hit AI infrastructure startups during a crash, facing immediate cash flow problems, asset devaluation, and existential threats unless it rapidly adapts or receives protective strategic support.uktech+4

As an employee of Oracle or Nscale – who would be worst affected in an AI crash?

As an employee, Nscale staff would likely be much worse affected by an AI crash than Oracle employees. This is due to the relative scale, business diversity, and risk tolerance of the two companies:

Nscale Employees: High Risk

Startup Vulnerability: Nscale is a high-growth, venture-backed startup focused almost entirely on the AI cloud hyperscaler market. If an AI crash occurs, Nscale would face abrupt revenue freezes, contract withdrawals, and rapid asset devaluation, with far less financial cushion to weather losses than a large incumbent like Oracle.
Layoffs and Insolvency Risk: In a crash, Nscale may be forced to lay off a substantial portion of its workforce quickly, pause projects, or even enter administration if funding evaporates or debts cannot be serviced. Employees could face sudden job loss, delayed salaries, and loss of equity value, with fewer internal opportunities for reassignment.
Equity and Options: Most compensation upside for Nscale staff is likely tied to startup equity. A market correction would deeply devalue or wipe out employee options/shareholdings, and prospects for another lucrative exit (e.g., IPO or acquisition) would diminish drastically.

Oracle Employees: More Stability, Less Immediate Risk

Diversified Business: Oracle is a global enterprise with diversified revenue streams across cloud, applications, hardware, licensing, and services. Even with heavy AI investment, its overall risk is spread out, and core business lines would remain resilient.
Less Severe Layoffs: Large tech companies like Oracle do enact layoffs in downturns, but they tend to be more measured and spread across divisions. Employees have more options to transfer internally or leverage severance and career support programs.
Compensation Impact: Public company employees with RSUs or stock options would feel a drop in value, but these tend to recover after corrections, and overall job security remains higher due to Oracle’s operational scale and financial reserves.

Summary Table

Factor	Nscale Employee Impact	Oracle Employee Impact
Layoff risk	Extremely high, abrupt	Moderate, measured
Job security	Low	High
Equity/option value	Likely wiped out	Lower, but more resilient
Internal mobility	Minimal	Significant
Corporate backup/support	Minimal/none	Substantial

In summary:
Nscale employees are far more exposed to job loss, equity wipeout, and uncertainty during an AI crash, while Oracle employees—even in affected AI-focused roles—would generally be shielded by the company’s size, global reach, and business diversity.

What is the benefits of joining Nscale for my career over staying at Oracle

Joining Nscale instead of staying at Oracle offers a profoundly different set of career benefits and risks. Your choice should be shaped by your appetite for growth, impact, compensation profile, and risk tolerance.

Career Acceleration and Impact

Rapid Responsibility & Visibility: At Nscale, a high-growth AI infrastructure startup, you’re likely to hold broader responsibilities, have a direct line to executives, and see tangible impact from your contributions—versus a more specialized, hierarchical environment at Oracle.linkedin+1
Cutting-Edge Technology Exposure: Nscale’s business is centered around the latest in AI hyperscale, GPU clusters, and sovereign compute, putting you at the heart of Europe’s most ambitious AI and cloud projects. This hands-on work accelerates technical learning and keeps you current with elite tooling.linkedin
Networking Opportunity: Being at a much talked-about scaleup, you’ll interact with top-tier industry partners (Microsoft, Nvidia, blue-chip VCs), as well as the fast-moving European AI ecosystem, which can boost professional reputation and future opportunities.cnbc+1

Compensation and Equity

Equity Upside: As with most startups, joining Nscale comes with employee equity—potentially life-changing financial upside if the company’s rapid growth leads to a successful IPO or acquisition. At Oracle, equity is usually granted as RSUs whose upside, while substantial, is tied to a mature company’s slower growth trajectory.
Compensation Mix Changes: Startup salary may be lower or matched to Oracle’s, but total comp potential is usually tied more to company performance and exit events.

Innovation, Learning and Influence

Innovation Environment: Nscale’s pace and hunger for innovation generally surpass what’s possible at a large, diversified incumbent like Oracle. Progression can be much faster for high performers at a startup, and you have more say in technical and strategic direction.
Learning Curve: The breadth of challenges—from scaling infra to winning deals and iterating products for hyperscaler clients—means you’ll develop skills quickly that are valuable for future founding roles, CTO posts, or senior technical leadership.

Risks, Trade-Offs and Stability

Job and Financial Risk: As shown in your AI crash scenario queries, Nscale is exposed to sector volatility. Layoff, equity wipeout, or strategic pivots are real risks in a downturn, while Oracle offers much greater job security and stable, long-term career pathways.
Work-Life Balance: Startups typically expect longer hours and intense focus, often trading stability for the chance at rapid advancement and financial gain.

Summary Table: Nscale vs Oracle Career Benefits

Career Factor	Nscale (Startup)	Oracle (Enterprise)
Career acceleration	Very high—fast progression, impact	Slower, more structured
Tech exposure	Latest/bleeding-edge AI/GPU work	Solid, broad enterprise stack
Compensation upside	High equity, risky	Stable salary, predictable RSUs
Job security	Low—volatile, high layoff risk	High, robust to market downturns
Influence	Large, direct access to leadership	Smaller, part of larger organization
Work-life balance	Often demanding	Generally more moderate
Networking	Top-tier VCs, hyperscalers, founders	Global enterprise contacts

In summary: Nscale offers a “rocket ship” growth and learning environment for someone hungry for ownership, innovation, and possible equity windfall—but this comes with higher risk and volatility. Oracle provides greater long-term job security, measured career progression, and reliable compensation, but less potential upside and less direct influence. The right choice depends on your risk appetite, ambition, and career goals.uktech+2

If you work for any IT company and see Slack users all of a sudden disappearing – then your company is performing a RIF. Out of the blue or with very short notice – a colleague or two’s Slack account is closed and you are left wondering why.

This trend has been around for a while now and sprung sites such as https://layoffs.fyi/ documenting the unprecedented amount of layoffs in the IT industry. Other sites document layoffs in other industries (e.g. UK education and civil service) too, and paints a gloomy picture of the state of unemployment and an extreme tough jobs market.

My current employer is make a round of RIF this moment in time! Hence this article about RIFs. I was affected by a RIF a year ago with a different corporation, so I am putting in motion things to do from the lessons I learnt from last time. I hope this will help anyone affected this time…

Trust No One

When you are being told that there is a round of RIF and “we are not affected” or “we are safe” by your manager or director – do not trust them. When this announcement is made interpret this as “you need to make plans and execute them ASAP in preparation that you will be affected”. Until the RIF round is “official” over, then consider this “unknown” period is your “at-risk” period.

By UK employment rules (the minimum that corporations will follow) your employer will have to give you an “at-risk” period (different from above!) When they give you this notice, you are able to stop work and look for other roles – internally OR externally).

My previous employer when they gave me this “at-risk” period, had already frozen hiring and no new “req”s were granted, making it impossible to get an internal role if you wanted to stay with your employer. In this situation you are effectively certain of being made redundant and will have to leave their employment…

You need to put things into place if you are going to survive the redundancy.

The Nature of IT RIFs

Two is not a pattern to draw definite conclusions on but it seems to me that when a corporation announces a record profit-making quarter, they follow this up by a record spend which forces them to make a RIF. This is the way…

The nature of IT recruitment and redundancies seem to have established a boom and bust pattern. Corporations overspend and over-recruit to achieve a commercial objective or goal (usually adding as much value to the corps as possible) and when this funding-period is over, they then perform a RIF to be able to start the next project. This is an evil cycle for the all employees, not just those who are let go.

When a RIF occurs, there’s little rhyme or reason why specific individual is affected. The main directive or goal of a RIF is to reduce costs so the corps can make up the huge spend or fund the new project – nowadays it is certain to be AI. The lowest hanging fruits will be picked first and then maybe the projects that are costing most but have delivered little and then just randomly in areas that (to the bosses) are not important. Of course, to the individual, we are all important so we ask the question why me? Why my team? Why my organisation?

There is no reason – even if your manager or director gives you a reason – this will not be it!

Accept and Move On

Successful people turn disadvantages to advantages – they accept the situation, deal with it fast – learn from the situation – and move on! They do not “sulk” or “get down” or “get stuck” – they learn, try again, try something different until they succeed. This is what anyone affected by RIF must do. When I say “accept and move on” yes, I mean accept the severance package and start on your CV/Resume and start job hunting… or if you are due a good package, buy that Porsche you’ve always wanted and drive it… into a traffic jam…

One of the help that might be available to someone who is “at-risk” is free consultation with a career coach. I must admit, I was very skeptical about this free facility at first, but once I ventured out to look at the job market, I find myself turning around and was open to help, tips, advice and motivation of any kind to get a head start.

The job market has changed a lot and has also gotten tougher and tougher with each round of redundancies. You need al the advice and coaching you can get. The successful things you did to attain the job/role that you’ve juts been made redundant from will NOT work this time! You need new job hunting skills, tools and be adaptable to the current state of the market.

Those who have not hunted for new roles or moved jobs in the past 5 or 10 years will have to learn and act fast! I see that even talent advisors and experience recruiters struggle to find new roles for themselves let alone for others…

What To Do?

This is my list – it needs to be adapted for your personal needs/situation – it is just to give you something to start with:

Update/rewrite your CV/Resume
- Your CV/resume will be current so update
- Your CV/resume will not be in a modern format/layout
- Your CV/resume will need to be tailored to the role
- Your CV/resume will need to be in a format for auto-form-filling easier
- Your CV/resume will need to be in a format for AI to process and not reject you without passing it on to a human!
Create a generic cover letter
- Your roles will be very similar in requirements, so a generic letter will save time
- Leave areas for specifics, but don’t forget to change those specifics
Sign up to LinkedIn and other job boards
- These sites will have job hunting tips and advice so take advantage
- These sites allow you to network so take advantage
- These sites might have training courses or practise facilities
Reach-out to contact and ex-colleagues
- There maybe suitable vacancies with their employer
- Ask them to spread the message that you are looking for a new role
Create a spreadsheet of job applications
- You will soon lose track of what company, the recruiter, the role, etc that you’ve applied for an why – keep a spreadsheet of all relevant info
Create a routine of job searching/application and rest
- You will need to be disciplined so a route that works with rest breaks to relieve the stress will keep you going until you are successful
Practise interviews. conversations, and coding tests, etc.
- You will need to be sharp and effective in your interview, practise and deploy all the tricks and methods for effective interview e.g. using S.T.A.R. method and the like.
- Practise in a Zoom session and record yourself, playback to evaluate how you perform and what you should do and not do, say and not say

Good Luck!

Do not give up! And do not stop once you’ve achieved a new role! Work as though you are under threat of being made redundant – there is no such thing as a safe job any more – always actively develop and progress to the next role…

I am writing this in a situation when I am actually in my “at-risk” period… But as I’ve started this process well before the RIF news, I think I am ahead in the job queue (although not necessary near the very start!)

BLU // SAS

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